- To The Moderate Majority: The Real Battleground is Ontario and Harper and the Con's are perched to make a sweep

Posted: 1:21 PM on April 27, 2011 The Globe and Mail
Nanos Poll
Layton jumps well ahead of Ignatieff as voters get off ‘the political couch’, Jane Taber, Globe and Mail,
April 27, 2011
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-jumps-well-ahead-of-ignatieff-as-voters-get-off-the-political-couch/article2000297/comments/

For all those Moderate Majority for whom getting rid of Harper is paramount we must look at the situation realistically and decide what is the most likely to happen.

Any voters for whom putting an end to the Harper regime is paramount, voting Liberal is the only realistic way of doing it.

And, it is, realistically, the only way to have Layton and the NDP participate in the governance of this great country of ours.

The real battleground is Ontario and if one were to believe this Poll Harper and the Con's are perched to make a sweep, resulting in a majority.

At this point the only way to prevent it is voting and voting Liberal. The NDP serge can only operate to prevent this and result in a Harper majority.

Layton is campaigning to become the Official Opposition

However, Layton becoming Official Opposition, would, with a high likelihood, cause Harper to get more seats than now or a majority.

Either way Layton becoming the leader of the Official Opposition would, in reality, mean Harper re-gains power over Canada.

The chances that Layton will get a majority is existent but remote.

The chances that Layton will end up ahead of Harper are, again remote.

The facts are:

Harper has a core of 33%

Liberals have a core of at least 25% - and that is the bare core.

The NDP have a core of 18% and that is on the high side.

For Layton to get a majority there would have to be a total collapse of the Canadian political spectrum into two parties, with one being NDP and the other Con - not even remotely possible, in this election anyway, especially given the Liberal core support.

It is possible that Layton could finish second, but as pointed out above, he would not be first. In this scenario it could only be, in reality, with Harper finishing first.

To surpass the Liberals there would be a high amount of vote splitting between NDP and Liberal. The likely outcome is Harper winning seats in riding he would other not resulting in an increase in seats. Or, seats switching from Lib to NDP, not affecting Harper's seat total.

In other words Harper can only win.

(In Quebec, this applies to vote splitting with the Bloc in Quebec although it may be preferable to have the seats NDP than Bloc, but no matter what it would not likely result in less seats for Harper, or only one or two. The only Province where the NDP could cause Harper to significantly lose seats is BC. It may be possible for a few and that would be a good thing. But, Que & BC would not likely put the NDP in a position of participating in the governance of this great country of ours)

And, either way, Layton and the NDP would not be given any chance to take part in the governance of Canada.

Harper has made it abundantly clear that he will not share power with any of the other parties to exercise power over Canada - and, given his track record, this is one of the only things that I find believable from Harper.

So, any voters for whom putting an end to the Harper regime is paramount, voting Liberal is the only realistic way of doing it.

And, it is, realistically, the only way to have Layton and the NDP participate in the governance of this great country of ours.

excerpt: Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html