- if we want to get rid of Harper we must take a cold hard look at the realities and decide accordingly

Lloyd Macilquham cicblog
4:02 PM on April 27, 2011

My Response to mikerobinson3 Reply, 1:46 PM on April 27, 2011, to my post: Lloyd Macilquham cicblog
1:21 PM on April 27, 2011:

If we want Harper out, we must look at the realities.

The problem is that at this position we do not know what will happen and what the end result will be. If we did deciding how to vote would be easy.

We may only speculate, based on rationality and the fundamentals.

To say the NDP could take the place of the Liberals is a possibility. But, if they do the likelihood of Harper re-gaining power is pretty much assured.

But, if we want to get rid of Harper we must take a cold hard look at the realities and decide accordingly.

We cannot take a chance on the possibility that Layton and the NDP will make such a great surge as to form the government.

In fact, Layton and the NDP best chance at participating in governance is the Moderate Majority vote Liberal, resulting in a minority government supported by Liberals and NDP

It may be that Layton will for the next government but the chances are remote and if he fall short, it will put Harper back in power.

Your scenario represents a collapse of the current Political spectrum into a two party system of NDP and Con. This is possible but not very likely.

First it would have to get thru that 25% core support of the Liberals, especially in Ontario, and I don't think that can be inferred from the Polls. Whereas the NDP have a core of 18%.

Liberals are middle of the road, and Ontarians are more likely to vote Liberal than NDP. In fact, at this point it appears they are more likely to vote Con than NDP, or Liberal for that matter.

The Poll illustrates this (Con: 46.9, Lib: 25.7, NDP: 21)

If we base our decisions merely on hopes and speculations we will end up with Harper again. In fact looking at the Polls it looks like the damage of Layton's long standing desire to be the leader of the Official Opposition has already done its damage - in Ontario the Con's are perched for a landslide - according to this Poll.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html