Low Voter Turn Out = Low Moderate Majority Turnout = Harper Minority or Even Majority.

Submitted: 7:07am, 27 Apr/'11 CBC
Advance poll numbers soar 34% from 2008, Friday, Monday busiest advance poll days ever, CBC News Posted: Apr 26, 2011
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/26/cv-election-advance-polls.html#

It's just that simple.

Harper and the Con's have 33% right-wing extremist die-hard supporters who will both vote and vote for the Con's

the lower the voter turnout the greater percentage of the vote they make up (you can throw in a small amount of soft vote but they are subject to the same problems as the opposition parties - voter turn out and voting the same as their prior intentions).

Harper has been running this country only because the Moderate Majority have not been engaged enough to vote and have not consolidated.

In the '08 election the biggest factor was the low voter turnout overall and for the Liberals, especially. Harper and the Con's were pretty much the same as the previous election:

Voter turnout was down from the previous election (approx 6.6% less) and Liberals received 850,000 less votes (or approx 19% less)

but Con's received approximately the same number of votes (actually 165,000 less or approx 3% less) as the previous election but ended up with 37.7%

and in the recent Vaughan by-election

where voter turnout was way down (32.5%), the Liberals were down approx 10,000 votes and the Con's received approximately the same number of votes

One good thing about the perceived 'NDP surge', it is getting people's attention and presumably animating them to get out and vote. It is difficult to rely on Polls - you simply don't know if they are accurately reflecting the mood of Canadian voters until after the election

and the all important voter turnout

The task now is getting their base motivated to get the vote out on election day. The Liberals have the most to do and the most to gain, or loss.

comments Lloyd MacILquham cicblog