- if the Con support falls to under 38%, Harper may very well be forced to debate Ignatieff one-on-one

Posted: 10:50 AM on April 7, 2011
Nanos Poll
Tories hold 9-point national lead, but support softens in B.C.
OLIVER MOORE
Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Thursday, April 7, 2011 7:43AM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-hold-9-point-national-lead-but-support-softens-in-bc/article1974489/comments/


Just think, if the Con support falls to under 38%,

Harper may very well be forced to debate Ignatieff one-on-one as in his bravado he so regretfully challenged.

If Nationally Harper and the Con's have stayed the same but in BC they have taken a dive.

You might, reasonably, expect that somewhere else they have taken a rise

"In two days, the polling indicates, the party’s support in the province has dropped from 48.4 per cent to 39.3 per cent. "

I would think it is more that:

- restricting the result to a province the size of BC creates too much inaccuracy and I notice that the two results are within the margin of error with each other (±8.1%)

Or,

- another possibility is that the polling in BC has simply been inaccurate in and around the period 3-4 Apr. where it took a spike
BC
1 Apr 40.1
2 Apr 42.1
3 Apr 49.7
4 Apr 48.4
5 Apr 41.9
6 Apr 39.9

- which could affect the overall results of the poll nationally - and the reduction in 9 points is simply the result of better polling in BC.

I find it hard to believe that in BC the Con's would have in reality 50% of the votes, or even 40% - it just doesn't jib with observation.

In the last election Harper received just about the same number of votes (3% less) than the election before, the Liberal about 19% less and overall turnout 3.3% less.

Harper is in power for only two reasons - it has nothing to do with policy, scandal, etc.:

- Harper has a core of die-hard, right-wing extremist supporters (approx.33%), epi-centred in Alberta that will vote for Harper pretty much no matter what - even if he were announce Carson as Justice Minister - someone make Harper promise he won't do that

- The Moderate Majority are disengaged and so don't vote and they are not consolidated.

That explains why Harper simply just doesn't care about anything else - the good of the Canadians people be dam[redacted]ed.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html