- Polls - Who Need Polls to Predict - If the Moderate Majority don't vote and don't consolidate their vote Harper will likely finish ahead in seat numbers and perhaps even get a majority.

Posted: 12:27 PM on April 25, 2011
Nanos Poll
Strength in Ontario puts ‘squeaker of a majority’ within Harper’s reach, Jane Taber, Globe and Mail Update, April 25, 2011
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/strength-in-ontario-puts-squeaker-of-a-majority-within-harpers-reach/article1997430/

I think everyone should take the Polls with a grain, or numerous grains of salt.

The problem is that they make great 'sound bites' for the media and with people turning to the media for their due diligence on voting, it become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

'everyone loves and underdog' 'it's a horse race', etc., so the media plays it up or even look for drama where drama may not actually exist.

The media does get people engaged, but to me should de-emphasize Polls, or emphasize their shortcomings and possible undue influence on people.

Even if the Polling is accurate people focus on the numbers and not the ranges.

For example, 20 Apr.'11, Nanos Poll:

BQ CON GRN LIB NDP ERROR±
7.5 39 3.4 26.7 22.1 3.1

Perhaps Nanos could confirm that it is just as legitimate to say that:

BQ CON GRN LIB NDP
10.6 35.9 3.4 29.8 19


For example, 24 Apr.'11, Nanos Poll:

BQ CON GRN LIB NDP ERROR±
6.5 39.2 3.6 25.6 23.6 +/- 3.1
Undecided 17.5

Perhaps Nanos could also confirm that it is just as legitimate to say that:

BQ CON GRN LIB NDP
9.6 36.1 3.4 28.7 20.5
Undecided 20.6

And the interesting thing is that this is approx what Polls have been indicating, generally, for more than a year

And puts Nanos in line with the Ekos and Forum Polls as far as the Con's are concerned.

So, is the Nanos Poll wrong - not if you know how to read Polls.

However, the average person may take it to means that the Con's actually have 39% support and the NDP have 22% and the NDP are experiencing a huge 'surge'.

Also, without stating what the undecided and refusal to respond, etc., is, the results of the Poll can be become quite deceptive.

Voter turn out is vital in predicting the results of the election and a low voter turnout was basically the reasons the Con's got so many seats.

Harper and the Con's have 33% right-wing extremist die-hard supporters who will both vote and vote for the Con's.

The lower the voter turn out the higher the % for Harper.

This phenomenon was accentuated in the last election

where voter turnout was down from the previous election (approx 6.6% less) and Liberals received 850,000 less votes (or approx 19% less)

but Con's received approximately the same number of votes (actually 165,000 less or approx 3% less) as the previous election but ended up with 37.7%

If the Moderate Majority don't vote and don't consolidate their vote Harper will likely finish ahead in seat numbers and perhaps even get a majority.

Vote splitting amongst the Moderate Majority only makes this more of a likelihood.

excerpt: Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html