- Harper, It Time To Duck

Submitted: 8:56am, PST, 9 Mar.'10 The Star

Travers: Expect PM to spark an election, James Travers, The Toronto Star, 9 Mar.'10
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/776970--travers-as-the-heat-builds-expect-pm-to-spark-an-election#comments Tab 9

Stephen Harper only needs a reason to call an election and the Afghan Detainee Transfer Scandal and ensuing cover-up is more than good enough.

The pattern with scandals and cover-ups appears to be similar to a a lump of [censored] hitting the wall.

At first there is a single 'fleck' that hits the target, by itself not of any real consequence. But it can be viewed as a harbinger. Then another, then a few more but more closely grouped in time, until finally the whole thing 'splats'. One could, similarly, likely put an actual time frame on this phenomenon as well, if one were so disposed.

If Harper is going to 'dodge this one' he will have to force an election and soon.

(If Harper would like some advice on calculating the time frames of such phenomenon, tell him to give me a call, not that I have personal experience, of course).

Also,
(excerpt: cicblog.com/comments.html, 8 Jan.'10, on whether Harper will force an election once Parliament resumes.)

But keep in mind, and this is fundamental to me anyway, Harper and the Con's appear to have a 33 - 35% core of die-hard supporters, Harper and the Con's need only be targeted in their approach to wooing and turning some of the demographic and social-economic 'blocks' and anyone who thinks they do not have such a strategy and are not successful in this will, likely, be in for a surprise. I won't go into the actual blocks and where they stand. But keep in mind that it is quite possible to get a majority with only 38% of the vote.

Also, the 33% core die-hard supporters means that in any election Harper and the Con's are not likely to finish behind any other Party, no matter who starts it. Also, given the seemingly unlimited funds from these supporters and the very limited funds for their 'enemy', an election will not harm the Con Party finances but may very well devastate those of the Liberals, itself a 'winning strategy'.

So Harper has nothing to loose and everything to gain. And, hey, if he can con people into thinking it was the Liberals who brought on the election maybe he will get that majority.

Ignatieff ought to be girding his sword, the Liberals 'gathering the Clans'.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html