- Harper has max'd out on the Con support

the narcissism of grumpiness and the 2% solution - september 27, 2010, comments and observations by frank graves, Ottawa – September 27, 2010
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2010/09/the-narcissism-of-grumpiness-and-the-2-solution-september-27-2010/#comment-10357

I can't see Harper and the Con's calling an election on the Long Gun Registry (GR). For one thing, the voting public are already constellated, and have been for a long, long time, on the issue and not likely to shift - and it simply does not produce the numbers for a majority.

There are 3 groups:
- those that will vote Con because of their stance on the GR;
- those that will vote against the Con's for the same reason;
and,
- all the other that will vote based on things (like the deficit, Harper spending, economy)

These groups have already been very well defined and not likely to change unless Harper and the Con's actually do abolish the GR, then the:
- 2nd group will not likely change since they will be even more against Harper.
- 3rd won't change.
- 1st group may very well lose their need to support Harper and the Con's so strongly, or at all.

Further, Stephen Harper, Jim Flaherty and the Conservative Party of Canada seem to be going both ways on what the election issue will be. When it suites them, it is the Long Gun Registry, and when it suites them it is the economy.

The Campaign issue will involve the economy, including taxes. But, you can betcha it will be in the light of the deficit and the Harper and Con's "Orgy of Excess" (rock on Ralph) and spending with reckless abandon. Harper and the Con's will tie in the issue of a coalition government with "Ignatieff-NDP-Bloc Québécois" but that too will be in terms of the economy - as indicated by the Flaherty speech last week.

(cicblog.com/comments.html, 22 Sep.'10)

Two polls were released amid the heat of the vote last week. Angus Reid's poll found 46 per cent of Canadians wanted the registry gone and 40 per cent wanted it to stay. The rest weren't sure what they wanted.

Harris Decima's poll found 48 per cent of Canadians wanted to keep it compared to 38 per cent who wanted to scrap it.
(Winnipeg Free Press, 27 Sep)

However, compare this to the polls on support generally voter intention that have the Con at around 33%, Lib's around 29% , NDP 16.6%, Green 10.7%, Block 8.9% (Ekos 16 Sep.'10)

So, if you take the average between the two pols on the GR, just for argument's sake, you get 42% wanting it scrapped. However, voter intention for the Con's is 33%. There are 9% points out there that want it scrapped but definitely vote for other reasons, since they vote against Harper. It is safe to say that since the 33% represents the die-hard core of right wing extremists epi-centred in Alberta that they, to a man, - sorry person - want the gun registry gone. But they all vote Con pretty much no matter what.

That is, unless Harper is seen to be compromising true Con ideology, or benefiting other demographics or regions of Canada (ahh ahh ahh Ch...Ontario/Quebec .. ooo - sorry sneezed), especially at their expense. Which could explain why Harper doesn't go after the 2% solution.

Quite simply, in order to so do, he would have to compromise true Con ideology and favour other demographics and they don't like that where they come from - in other words, perhaps Harper risks losing a point for each gained. The indications are that at least 5 of those 33 points are hard liners ready to dump Harper for his 'moderation' and that's a lot. More important or just as important is they represent a significant source of funding for the Party, which it is suggested new converts from Ontario/Quebec wouldn't. In other owrds, Harper has max'd out on the Con support.
Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html