- Do all Those Voting For Harper Think He is Trustworthy, Therein Lies the Question

Posted: 7:50am, PST, 30 Nov.'10,
http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/172#comment_44414
Federal Tories continue to lead, Harper advantage as best PM erodes (Nanos Poll Completed November 5th 2010)


There is an issue as to the extent to which these results are biased by the current polarization in Canadian politics.

In other words people answering in favour of Harper and the Con's not because they think Harper is, in actuality, the most trustworthy, competent, best vision, leader, but because they are die-hard supporters of the Con.

This bias is exacerbated by looking only at decided voters, since die-hards are more likely to be decided, almost be definition.

This phenomenon is not observed with support for Ignatieff and may even be the other way around - to choose Ignatieff they have to have a very strong opinion he is trustworthy, competent, best vision.

If you get a handle of this die-hard Harper support, then you may be able to adjust for it. Whether they have a second preference and who that is one thing to look at. Unfortunately Nanos hasn't released the numbers here.

I suggest that 37% of decided voters (or 29.7% overall) is getting to the core of die-hards for Harper and the Con. You can confirm this for yourself.

In that case, 24.1% for Harper's trustworthiness (17.35 overall including undecided) is actually a very bad indication since it represents a significant number (29.7 - 17.35 = 12.3 points overall compare to 24 points; or 1/3 of the die-hards) that indicate they would vote for Harper but do not have a high opinion of his trustworthiness. As suggested above, these may very well all be die-hards. It also supports that those indicating they would vote for Harper are doing so because they are die-hards and not because they think Harper is good for the country. This is supported by there being a much increase undecided.

You do your own math for the rest

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html