- Vaughan By-election? simple: The Con's were motivated and the moderate majority weren't

Submitted: 7:29am, PST, 1 Dec.'10

Libs, Tories claim victory in byelections but pollster cautions Conservatives, Tim Naumetz, Nov 30, 2010
http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/37
and
Posted: 10:46 AM on December 1, 2010
After by-elections, the parties spin
John Ibbitson, Globe and Mail, Dec. 01, 2010
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/after-by-elections-the-parties-spin/article1819793/

In by-elections there seems to be a tendency to vote the candidate, or issue, as opposed to the party, especially if there is a star candidate or important issue. So it is difficult extrapolated the results into and general pattern.

We saw this in the Outramont by-election, of which the NDP afterwards hailed as their big breakthrough in Quebec - which failed to materialize in the next General Election, if I recall.

Significant in the Vaughan by-election was:
"The Conservative vote was almost identical Monday as it was in the 2008 election, on a turnout that was 20 points lower. The Liberals lost nearly 10,000 votes, when compared with the last election, and they will hope that they have more success getting their vote out next time." (Ivison, NP)

In other words, Fantino did not attract votes new voters, Kenny's wooing had no impact in mobilizing new votes from Immigrants. This is despite there being 50% of riding voters born overseas/60% Italian Canadian

The key to the Liberal defeat in Vaughan is, obviously, the low voter turnout - 20 points less than the general Election. That is, it was the lack of mobilization of the Liberal vote that not won it for Fantino but lost it for the Liberals. The Con's were motivated and the moderate majority weren't. This phenomenon was seen in the '08 election where Liberal voters stayed home in droves.

If I were making decisions that mattered regarding such things, I would chose Judy Sgro's assessment over Kenney's. The Liberal ought to take Kenney's efforts in wooing the Immigrant vote very seriously and the Con's may be having success and if they do it may prove very bad for non-Con's in the GTA. But this by-election doesn't verify this.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html