- The Big Question - Will I get Pulled, Yet Again, from the Taber Artcile

Posted: 7:50am, PST, 26 Nov.'10

Ekos:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2010/11/conservatives-pulling-away-from-moribund-liberals-november-25-2010/#comment-11137

and

Taber:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harper-pulls-away-as-fall-swoon-hits-ignatieff-in-poll/article1813044/comments/

(I think I have been pulled again, although it indicated 11:53am and I posted it 10:50am (approx), however, I can't find mine so again - go figure)

As I have been saying for quite some time now, these polls can not be properly interpreted without taking into account the die-hard support (manifesting in 33%) for Harper and the Cons.

This represents people who support Stephen Harper and the Conservative party in any kind of poll because of ideological reasons. It severely bias's the polls, of course, and with many it can account for all answers favouring Harper in a particular question polled.

I am glad to see that someone (Ekos) is starting to track this aspect - vis.: the "Ideology" heading - rock on Graves

Last time the Ekos poll had Harper and the Cons at 29.4%, at the time I suggested " But, until this downward trend is continued let's just chalk it up to Harper having a few bad Con days (a review of the media can help in this)". - see: Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html - 18 November, 2010, "Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, will you let me join the dance today? (comp.: Lewis Carroll)"

Of course if my posting had not been pulled from Taber's article, again, people would have been able to read this.

As we can see Harper is back up to 33%.

It is inaccurate to classify this as the Con's "pulling away" from the Liberals.


I refer to this phenomenon as the 'die-hard right-wing extremist, epi-centre in Alberta' factor:

33% points of Harper and the Con's support in a poll can be attributed to the die-hard right-wing extremist*, epi-centre in Alberta factor.

For example, 38% feel Harper and the Con's are going in the right direction. Keeping in mind that 33 point are made up of people who feel Harper is in the 'Right' direction (i.e. they are supporting Harper because of his right wing ideology, as opposed to consideration of doing good for Canada).

That leaves only 5 points that are perhaps basing their answer on factors other than ideology. This number would have to be tracked for a while to get anything out of this since the margin of error is normally approx 3 points, in other words, the 5 points is statistically significant but barely.

That 28% would answer small 'c' is actually interesting - for one thing is it a coincidence that this is the same as the Con support two weeks ago. It would be very interesting to see what portion of this also gave Con as voter intent.

One might be tempted to say all, but then compare the Liberal numbers. The Liberal numbers can not be analyzed in the same fashion since the die-hard support is not manifest in the poll results.

*The Silent Minority:

Apparently some have an issue with my using 'extremist' - go figure.

They are extremist, both in their views and their acting upon their views, and I would be surprised if you asked them, they would not be proud of it and actually quite please with the results so far.

That Stephen Harper and the Cons have views based on right wing ideology that lies at the extreme of Canadian social and political views is manifest and very well documented. People who give die-hard, unquestioning support to Harper because of these ideological views, as opposed to whether Harper is good for Canada and all Canadians, can only, and Rightly, be described as 'extremist'.

On the other hand, being silent but working towards their goals in the background, underneath the radar, denying everything for the media, and hiding your true intent and purpose from the rest of the population is certainly a tried and tested political strategy.

It is used by extremists so that the majority are not awakened and, shocked by what they see, give the extremists (Harper) the boot.

Besides denying their roots, another of the methods, is, of course, keeping a tight muzzle on MP's. This creates a serious strain, since a hallmark of extremism, especially right wing who view it as a moral issue, is to be very vocal about their beliefs and how others have failed and how only they have the answers. With Harper and the Con's there are many examples.


Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html