- Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, will you let me join the dance today? (comp.: Lewis Carroll)

Posted: 12:42 PM on November 18, 2010 I have observed that my Posts for Taber articles seem to get pull down after a hour or so - go figure - we'll see this time.
News Flash - My Post was pulled an hour or so after posting - Last time I asked why and got no answer - this time it is hardly worth the effort to ask.
Coalition fear-mongering falls on deaf ears, poll finds, Jane Taber, Globe and Mail Update, November 18, 2010,
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/coalition-fear-mongering-falls-on-deaf-ears-poll-finds/article1803937/

Posted: 10:19 PST, 19 Nov.'10 Nanosonthenumbers
One in two Canadians think government change would have no impact on economic stability (Nanos Poll completed November 5th 2010)
http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/173


When analysis polls such as this, the 'die-hard right-wing extremist, epi-centre in Alberta' factor must be taken into account - vis.:

33% points of Harper and the Con's support in a poll can be attributed to the die-hard right-wing extremist, epi-centre in Alberta factor.

If you compare the most recent Ekos poll on voter intention (11 Nov.) overall:
Con: 29.4
Lib: 28.6
NDP: 19.3
Green: 10.7
Block: 9.3

29.3% is the first time voter intention for the Con's has dropped below 33% in a long time (you can check for yourself) and is statistically significant. But, until this downward trend is continued let's just chalk it up to Harper having a few bad Con days (a review of the media can help in this).

The Ekos voter intention for the Con's in the Prairies (combining Alberta and Saskatewan-Manitoba) is: 43% (with a large margin of error approx 10%).

Compare this to the current Nanos Poll on 'Change would be risky':
Prairies (combining Alberta and Saskatewan-Manitoba): 41.1%

This is statistically equal to the Ekos voter intention of 43%

If there is 43.1% die-hard support for Harper and the Con's in the Prairies one would expect them (almost to a person - otherwise they would not be die-hards) to follow the messaging by Harper and the Con's on a non-Con government being risky to Canada's economy.

This in itself accounts for all the 'risky' support in this region.

In other words the Nanos poll is seriously biased due to the 'die-hard right-wing extremist, epi-centre in Alberta' factor.

If not,

then the die-hards would be represent a smaller group and so a significant number of people with die-hard voter intention Con do not think a coalition risky.

That is not a good thing for Harper and his 'coalition is risky' con.

I'll let you do your own math on the rest.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html