- Where Have All The Core Con's Gone (sung to the tune of 'Where Have All the Soldiers Gone')

Posted: 9/8/2010 12:37:27 PM The Globe and Mail
Tories, Liberals and NDP get bad news in latest poll, John Ibbitson and Jane Taber, Sep. 08, 2010
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-liberals-and-ndp-get-bad-news-in-latest-poll/article1699082/ Tab 68



It seems to me the important aspect of the current Polls is the provincial numbers. Unfortunately the margins of error for the Provinces is quite large to the extent that the Liberals and The Conservative Party are statistically equal everywhere except the Prairies (what can you do). Also important is the undecided.

The Con's have 33% - but see below - die-hard, extremist right wing, with epi-centre in Alberta, support, which keeps Stephen Harper and the Con's in power, (I refer to it as the 'core con number'). This ought to be taken into account in any analysis since it can be assumed they will support Harper in any Poll (as long as he stays on program and produces the goods)

Normally one might take the undecideds and distribute them pro-rata (I refer to it as the 'Keith Davies' adjustment) . However, given the core con number one must assume that the 33% essentially represents all the die-hard supporters and so there are disproportionately much fewer Con's in the undecided, to the point of it being statistically insignificant.

To see how this core con number number skews results, take for example, the Leadership Index:

Trust: Nanos gives Stephen Harper: 25.5

i.e., of the 33% die-hard 25.5 points choose him as the most trusted.

So, at least 7.5 points of core con's are not choosing Harper as the most trusted. And, if you assume that some of the 25.5% are not die-hards, then it is even worse for Harper. Same for the undecideds, if there are an appreciable number of die-hards in the undecideds that bodes ill for Harper.

So, the trust score for Harper should be more accurately set at: - 7.5%, or less

Similarly,

- Competence for Harper should be more accurately set at: -2.7%

- Vision for Harper should be more accurately set at: - 5.5%

In other words, Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada may be in trouble with his core of supporters and we may see an adjustment of the core con number in the coming months. The big question is why. This may be that some simply disagree with the many things Harper has done in the past while and it has built up to them starting to question their support (undecideds) or have actually been pushed over the top (gone to other Parties). It could also be basically the opposite and some are displeased with Harper's watering down policy and doing everything by stealth, not coming right out and stating exactly what he stands for and what his policies are. The indications are that they represent as much as 5 - 7% of the core con number.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html