- Hurry, Hurry, Hurry, Step Right (Morally, that is) This Way

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"RACE DEADLOCKED AS CONSERVATIVES FALTER ON CENSUS DECISION - September 2, 2010, Ekospolitics
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2010/09/race-deadlocked-as-conservatives-falter-on-census-decision-september-2-2010/

By the way - I disagree with the analysis put forward by Ekos (see below) at least to the extent that it tells the whole story. When you look at a Province by Province breakdown, what you find, in my opinion, is a migration to the Green and Block parties (which is heavily environmental). It may be that University educated people are more 'enlightened' about the environment (I am not commenting on that). They seem to be shifting away from the Con's due to the Long Form Census and Gun Registry, etc., etc., etc., but they seem to be choosing their new 'tent' based on environmental issues. This would explain why the Liberals are the same over the last two Ekos Polls.

A couple of years ago, prior to the last election, I suggested that Dion announce that if the Liberal were to win he would ask Elizabeth May to be Environment Minister. Ignatieff wouldn't likely do this, but he should make it very clear, and soon, that the Liberal Big Tent is big enough to welcome Green Party supporters, and make them feel at home, whom, I would think, are every bit as eager to give Harper and the Con's the boot as any others in Canada.

Also, the 29.4% for Harper and the Con's nationally is only a bit under the 'mythical' 33% considering the margin of error (2.7% nationally). If you look at Alberta you see that if anything the die-hards are still there and with a bit bigger numbers (2.8 points). The big difference seems to be BC where the Con's dropped 15.4 points, the Lib's were essentially the same, GP up 6.3% and NDP up 7.6. Atlantic shifted from the Con's to the GP with a per centage sticking to the Lib's as the went by (Con's down 12.4, Lib's up 9.2 and GP up 13.4 points) - but you must keep in mind differences in sizes of populations, which will affect the overall.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html

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http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2010/09/race-deadlocked-as-conservatives-falter-on-census-decision-september-2-2010/
. . .

"RACE DEADLOCKED AS CONSERVATIVES FALTER ON CENSUS DECISION - September 2, 2010
In the last week of polling, the Conservatives and the Liberals were in an almost exact tie at 29.4% and 29.1%, respectively. The NDP, the Green Party, and the Bloc show little change (although the Greens and the Bloc are up modestly). The demographics show that the Liberal move to a tied position is almost exclusively a product of a major shift in how the university educated are leaning. The Conservatives have shed many of their university educated supporters and the Liberal Party has picked them up (as well as some possible gains from other university educated voters)."