- Looks Like We're Being Con'd Again

Posted: 10:57am,PDT, 6 May '10 to Nik on th NUmbers

Federal Conservatives Lead (Nanos Poll Completed May 3rd 2010)
http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/162

The Con's increase to 37.2% can be understood, to a large degree, by the increase in undecided, given the the Con's have a core of immutable die-hard supporters, especially in Alberta, that are very much decided and always will be. If the number of decided's decreases, the number of those that support the Con's is relatively higher.

The Block numbers may also be due to this above effect since we know the undecideds has increased there, so their numbers in Quebec may reflect this.

Another factor is whether the number of decided's in Alberta has actually increased, despite the overall decrease, which it can be assumed increased the Con number to a much higher extent that other Parties. Nik hasn't revealed these numbers, which, obviously, makes analysis very difficult.

It seems that increases by a Party (Con's, Lib's anyway) is in conjunction with decreases in the Green party (except of course, the Green Party and perhaps the NDP).

This would suggest that strong environmentalists in Quebec (and perhaps otherwise) are starting to be pulled way from the Green Party (where is Liz these days anyway). We will have to see what Party they gravitate to. But, I am not sure that this explains the increase in the Block numbers - see above.

Info on second choices would be useful as well. Come on Nik, out with it.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html

[updated Thu May 06 13:57:39 EDT 2010]