- Harper's Ship Sinking? - You Do The Math

Posted: 6:34am, PDT, 15 Jul.'10 CBC News
Tories still ahead, poll suggests, CBC News, July 14, 2010
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/07/13/environics-poll.html

"The new poll shows the Conservatives with the support of 35 per cent of decided voters, while the Liberals trail with 32 per cent of the decided vote.

The NDP holds 15 per cent of decided voters and the Green Party stands at six per cent, according to the Environics poll. Nine per cent would vote for the Bloc Québécois nationally, which translates into 37 per cent support in Quebec.

Thirty-one per cent of respondents said they did not know who they would vote for, while eight per cent said they would not vote at all."

I don't think that these result are too surprising as far as party support is concerned

The big thing here is the % of undecided, 31%, and no votes, 8%. If I were Harper I would be very concerned. If this % is increasing this may represent a real and fundamental shift.

The recent Ipsos Reid poll had 8% of voters remain undecided (Calgary Herald, 10 Jul.'10).

It may be that the methodology is reflected in these groups rather than who people say they are supporting.

Harper and the Con's die-hard supporters, epi-centre in Alberta, represent 33%, or at least has been. This poll is statistically in line with this. In other words, this Poll represents the die-hard support for the Con's and really nothing more. The additional 2 points can be explained by the much higher undecided. The number of die-hards in absolute terms doesn't change much and they are not likely to be undecided, no matter what the methodology. So, if you increased the % undecided, the number of die-hards becomes a bigger % of those that are decided. If anything, it could be that Harper and the Con's are in the process of loosing ground.

Also, if someone doesn't attribute 17% to the NDP then they run a big risk regarding any predictions made. 15% is statistically in line with this.

This leaves the Green Party and I suggest that these polls indicate Liberal fortunes are linked to the Green Party. It seems to me that recent polls have put the environment on top of Canadians concerns. The Con government apparently are going to be conducting surveys on Canadians' attitudes towards the environment and Global Warming, green tax, etc., ("Ottawa wants to explore Canadians' understanding of the national and international energy context as well as their tolerance for certain costs. "- CTV News, 11 Jul.'10) and the Con's are masters of polls (and deceit, hypocrisy, obstruction, obscuration, etc., as well - how many times has Harper said that he does not govern by Polls, and how many times has Harper and Paradis and other Con's stated that they will follow the leader, Obama, and of course, wouldn't it be a real slice if Harper brought in a cap-and-Trade or Green Tax.).

The Block support may also reflect this and this poll suggest this, since there is a decrease in Block support with an increase in Liberal.

You do the math.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html