- Who's On Left

submitted: 9:36am (PDT), 25 Mar.'12
Mulcair says NDP 'poised' to form government http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/24/pol-ndp-leadership-convention-vote-result.html

On 2 Oct.'11 before Mulcair had decided to ruin in the leadership race I blog'd to G&M and CBC:

"I think it is a question of priorities with the NDP.

If the top priority is winning the next election I don't think there is much doubt that with Thomas Mulcair the NDP could possibly do it.

If their priority is, instead, maintaining and supporting the status quo, emphasis on ideology, winning the election not a consideration (i.e. business as usual), then Brian Topp

To me Mulcair is more Liberal leader material, Brian Topp NDP.

The Liberals should be chomping at the bit at the opportunity to woo Mulcair over and Mulcair should be giving such serious consideration."

(see: cicblog.com/comments : 02 October, 2011- Mulcair - Liberal Leader - I Must Be Dreaming)



A review of the voting yesterday indicates to me that Mulcair had less than 40% support - keeping in mind that there was preferential balloting by most of the voters and Mulcair didn't reach 40% until after the 3rd ballot - in other words, it appears it was those who chose him third that put him over 40%.

"So the influence of those voting today – about 10,000 on the first ballot – is far from defining. What matters is the second-choice picks of those who already voted."
http://m.theglobeandmail.com, John Ibbitson, 24 Mar.'12


It doesn't take much to predict that Harper and the Con's will mount a viscous ad campaign attacking Mulcair personally and his position in the NDP.

The voting patterns show that the NDP are very much divided between Old Guard ideologues and the more pragmatic new guard.

There would be little surprise if Harper and the Con's attack ads did not play into this, big time.

I remember the day after Dion was elected leader of the Liberal Party a Con was interviewed on TV (Jaffer, if my memory serves me 'right') explaining that they already had profiles on all the candidates already prepared and ready to be used for attack ads.

The recent Harper attack ads on Bob Rae were more to keep him and the Liberals 'in their place' as opposed to feeling they, per se, are any real threat. Keep in mind the Con's have the money to throw at such things (and it spreads the wealth around and so good 'pr' with the media).

Also, the biggest fear that Harper and the Con's have is the Liberals and the NDP co-operate on some level - we've seen the extent to which Harper will go in such cases.

So, the attack ad was more importantly to lay the groundwork for their attack ads on Mulcair - something like, he's going to co-operate with Bob Rae and the Liberals, thus playing on this very deep divide in the NDP.

********

1st ballot:
Results of first ballot: Thomas Mulcair 30.2%, Brian Topp 21.3%, Nathan Cullen 16.3% Peggy Nash 12.8%, Paul Dewar 7.4%, Martin Singh 5.8%, Niki Ashton 5.7%

2nd ballot
Mulcair got 42% of new votes on second ballot.
Thomas Mulcair 38.3%, Brian Topp 25%, Nathan Cullen 19.9% Peggy Nash 16.8%,

3rd ballot
Mulcair takes about 33% of new/Nash votes on 3rd ballot, Topp about 39%, Cullen about 28%.
Mulcair has 43.8%; Topp is second at 31.6%; Cullen: 24.6%

forth ballot:
Mulcair took 54% of Cullen's support.
Here are the numbers: 57.2% for Mulcair, 42.8 per cent for Topp

(compare: G&M; http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca; CBC)

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html