- Harper Take Heed, The Moral Right May Actually Be Moral

Posted: 11:29 AM on March 21, 2011 The Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ignatieff-draws-a-dual-bead-on-harpers-ethics-and-fiscal-acumen/article1949531/Ignatieff draws a dual bead on Harper’s ethics and fiscal acumen, Jane Taber, Globe and Mail, March 21, 2011

Harper and the Con's have a core of 33% die-hard supporters. People who will support Harper pretty much no matter what, provided he does not abandon his right-wing extremist views and intentions.

These die-hards bias any poll since they will very likely answer and will answer in support of Harper, unless it is very repugnant for them.

So, it is not surprising to get results like:

- 37% believe that “electing a party and leader that will make sure that our economic recovery continues” is more important.

Which everyone knows is the Harper platform, which they are making extreme efforts to 'own'

- 28% of Canadians believe the Conservatives, if re-elected, would do the best job of “providing honest, open and trustworthy government.”

Opps, this suggests that there are die-hards that seems to be so repulsed morally as to not support Harper - wow, must be bad!

As the scandals pile up and become 'ripe' this may get more.

There are other indicators that the 'Moral Right', indeed, place morality highly in their politics and may be prepared to dump Harper and the Con's, if they cannot support him on a moral basis.

- When it comes to the party that can do the best job at “making sure our economic recovery continues,” '37% chose the Tories',

This just above the margin of error (3.1%) from 33% suggests that 1 - 3% non-die hards that think Harper can do the best job for the economy

Also, if the survey used "Tories" (either in the questions or accepted answers) for Con that in and of itself would be sufficient to invalidate the poll - but then Ipsos Reid wouldn't make that mistake, would it. It certainly throws into question the reporting.

- “keep taxes under control” 36% believe the Conservatives are best

Same comment as above

Also, There seems to be another plateau being hit here reminiscent of the results of the last election.

- 33% believe the Conservatives would do the best job at “spending taxpayers money wisely,”

Right on!

So, the only people who think Harper is spending out tax money wisely are the die-hards - that's just about 'Right'

This survey suggests

If the 'ballot' issue is economy, then these 33% die-hards are going to vote Harper

But we already knew this.

If, on the other hand, ' honest, open and trustworthy government' is the issue then Harper may ^not be able to count on the full 33%

This is interesting and if given enough time for some of these chickens to come home to roost in the voter conscious . . .

Of course, if the Moderate majority were to consolidate then Harper is pretty much done like a dinner anyway.

Oh, by the way, did I mention, the real significance of this poles is the undecideds - as have been the case for quite a while now.

As the number of undecideds (or no choice's) increases they are not likely to come from the die-hard Con supporters, if they are, which may be the case for “providing honest, open and trustworthy government”, then Harper is in real trouble.

So relatively speaking the die-hards have a greater impact on the decided's choice and thus the poll is more biased.

There appears to be a magic number above which the 'undecideds' going may be significant in an election. I wonder if the pollsters know it.

This poll not only allows for interpretation by assuming there are 33% die-hards Harper supporters that will support him pretty much no matter what (except moral issues), it supports it.

excerpt: Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html