- Harper - to Con or not to Con - Us Into an Election

Submitted: 02/08/10 at 12:02 pm - The Hill Times
Liberals not ready to defeat Tories in spring , Harris MacLeod, 8 Feb.'10
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/spring-02-08-2010

. . . seems to have left out the euphoric love-in effect for Harper and the Con's coming off the Winter Olympics. This factor should not be overlooked and by that time the Afghan Detainee Transfer Scandal and ensuing cover-up may very well refer to 'bygone days'.

Another factor, which may work against an election is the current downward trend in Harper and the Con's in the Polls. However, it may very well be that the fading into the pages of history of the Afghan Scandal and the Olympics will cause an upturn, and it probably will.

But keep in mind, and this is fundamental to me anyway, Harper and the Con's appear to have a 33 - 35% core of die-hard supporters, Harper and the Con's need only be targeted in their approach to wooing and turning some of the demographic and social-economic 'blocks' and anyone who thinks they do not have such a strategy and are not successful in this will, likely, be in for a surprise. I won't go into the actual blocks and where they stand. But keep in mind that it is quite possible to get a majority with only 38% of the vote.

Also, the 33% core die-hard supporters means that in any election Harper and the Con's are not likely to finish behind any other Party, no matter who starts it. Also, given the seemingly unlimited funds from these supporters and the very limited funds for their 'enemy', an election will not harm the Con Party finances but may very well devastate those of the Liberals, itself a 'winning strategy'.

So Harper has nothing to loose and everything to gain. And, hey, if he can con people into thinking it was the Liberals who brought on the election maybe he will get that majority.

Combine this with a perception that Ignatieff and the Liberals are weak (and if the Liberals don't think this is so, they just have to go out and talk to people) and Harper will, in the New Year, start changing his tune to "Oh, and by the way, did I mention that Canadians do want an election" and perhaps poison the budget to force an election - yah, like he's ever done that before.

7 Jan.'10
Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html