- Riddle Me This: "What do you get when you Take The Die-Hards From the Harper"

Posted: 12:19 PM on February 21, 2011 Globe and Mail
Tory attack ads pack a punch that leaves Liberals reeling, John Ibbitson, Globe and Mail, February 21, 2011
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-attack-ads-pack-a-punch-that-leaves-liberals-reeling/article1914858/

It is interesting to note in the Nanos Poll that 'Regional Ballot' can be explained by taking the decrease in undecided and pretty much spreading it equally amongst the CON, NDP and GRN (except for the Block), especially within the margins of error.

This would mean that the Con's are not gaining ground but when the undecideds decide, they are pretty much spreading equally amongst the other parties. For this to occur, it is hard to believe that they are doing this according to party preference (since you would expect it more pro-rated).

Perhaps it is co-incidence (ha-ha-ha) or a flaw in the polling methods and without more details I can't see eliminating either.

On the other hand, if other polls by other polling companies are getting similar results then this is a pretty interesting phenomenon (perhaps it is attack ad effect)

The 'Best PM' polling result are much more straight forward since there is little change in 'unsure' & 'none-of-them' (presumably these two are comparable to 'undecided')

The polls for quite awhile now have manifested a unwavering die-hard support for Harper and the Con's of approx. 33% who would support Harper pretty much no matter what he did as long as he stays in line, Canada be dam[redacted]ed.

It is not hard to imagine that they would, first of all, answer the question, 'Best PM', and secondly, chose Harper.

If you look at the most recent results you see that they pretty much make up all of those choosing Harper and within the margin of errors there are not others.

So, those in the spread between die-hards and choosing Con (39.7 - 33) 6.7 do not think Harper is the 'Best PM'.

If I were the Con's that is what I would look at, especially given the observation above, and the fact that last time 'Best PM' was below the 33% die-hards, (28.4 with MOE 3.1).

excerpt: Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html