- Harper majority - God save Canada

The Tories’ quest for a federal majority will lead them to B.C., JOHN IBBITSON, Globe and Mail, Feb. 17, 2011
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politics/the-tories-quest-for-a-federal-majority-will-lead-them-to-bc/article1912310/

I think you make a good point by saying that there will be a lot of action in BC in the next election.

I think you are also right when you say that "In B.C., voters often swing between the Conservatives and the NDP, bypassing the Liberals entirely." I know from personal experience.

One might think, given it circumstances that the Liberals (Federal) would be more in play in BC and I am always intrigued by their poor performance (and have my theories, of course).

However, I disagree that the analysis ought to be focused on close races from the last election.

Keith Martin's (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca) is a good example.

In the last election we experience the Dion effect (including his Green policy). Liberals generally took a dive then, with approx 800,000 - 900,000 vote less than previously (as I recall). These votes left from somewhere and it may be that Martin's riding (as well as Dosanjh's) felt the impact more than others.

Clarification: Martin stayed pretty much the same in the last three elections both in absolute number and %'s - vis.:
...............'04..................'06.....................'08
Lib:..19 389/35.3......20 761/34.9......20 042/34.2
Con: 13 271/24.2......16 327/27.5......19 974/34.1
Ndp: 16 821/30.6......18 595/31.3......13 322/22.7
Grn:...5 078/09.2.......3 385/05.7.......4 854/08.3

It was a combination of another party taking a dive (NDP) and the switch...between NDP and Con, bypassing the Lib's.

In BC generally Lib's votes dove by 31.4%

voter turn out BC:

08......06......04
60.1...63.7...63.3


total votes BC
........... Con........NDP...............Lib........... Grn...............total
08: 797 177... 467 882.........346 344...168 282.........1 793 400

06: 682 109... 521 473.........504 738...97 002.........1 805 322

04: 628 999... 460 435.........494 992...109 861.........1 733 360

An explanation is that in Martin's riding, because his support was solid and Dion turned NDP'ers off they voted strategically to oust Martin.

Then there's Dosanjh (ah, another day)

If the Liberals can avoid another 'Dion effect' close races like Martin's may not be that much in play.

If Martin's riding is in play this time, it is more because Martin is not running than a close race last time, since clearly the support for the Liberal has been solid, the only question to what extent martin plaid a part.

One thing that may well come into play generally is whether the 66% non right-wing extremists that do not want Canada to be run by Harper and the Con's consolidate. This may not bode well for the Liberals in BC since the consolidation may not be to their party.

Another thing that may come into play is the Vaughan scenario. In this the Con vote, in absolute terms, stayed pretty much the same, but the Lib vote decreased by 10,000*, this resulted in a Con victory where previously it might well have been considered safe.

This the Liberal Party should be concerned about, real concerned, and if it were me I'd be looking at ridings where this may be possible and I am not sure there are very many in BC

All Canadians should be concerned too, since if the Liberals take another fall, it will likely be a Con majority, in which case - God Save Canada!

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html