- Don't get Con'd on these by-elections.

Posted to:
Byelection win will boost Tories in Quebec: MP, November 10, 2009
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2009/11/10/quebec-federal-byelection-tories-bloc.html Tab 5


The big winner in Quebec Norman Spector, November 10, 2009
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/the-big-winner-in-quebec/article1357381/ Tab 5


A bad night for the Liberals, Robert Silver, 10 Nov.'09
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/the-big-winner-in-quebec/article1357381/ Tab 2


As I discussed yesterday on cicblog.com, in by-elections one of the important things is the % of voters. The voter turnout was: Voter turnout (%): Cumberland NS 36, Hochelaga Q 22, Montmagny Q 37, N West'er BC 29.9. I can't remember anything that consistently low.

If anything, this is a pathetic comment on the government of the day - people are so jaded and cynical about the current Harper and Con's they just don't feel its worth the effort - i.e. Harper and the Con's are still going to be running this country so what's the point.

When there is a low turn out it is safe to assume that it is hard core supporters that vote. It indicates that there is no "issue" in contention, Leadership or otherwise, and those that bother to go out and vote are hard core supporters either for the candidate or the party.

Another important aspect of by-elections that is very different than general elections is that people are more likely to vote the candidate. This accounts for the Con win in Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup, where the Cons ran a very popular candidate locally, he was the former mayor of La Pocatière. We saw this effect in the Outremont by-election of 'Sep. '07, where the NDP won because of the very high local profile of their candidate, compared to the other candidates. Did this foreshadow a break through by the NDP in the next general election, I suggest not.

For anyone who might suggest that this is a huge victory for Harper and the Con's you only need to look at the results for the Con's in the other Quebec by-election (Hochelaga): They got 1,774 votes!(10.1%) , behind the Liberal and in fact the Liberals got a higher % in the riding the Con's won than the Con's got in the ridi8ng that they lost (distant 3rd).

Lloyd MacIlquham cicblog.com/comments.htm

Elections Canada Voter Turnout (not including voters who reg on the day)
Cumberland NS 35.7%
Hochelaga Q 22.3%
Montmagny Q 36.6%
N West'er BC 29.9%

****************
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley Last updated: 22:52 ET
Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Conservative Scott Armstrong 11,167 45.8
NDP-New Democratic Party Mark Austin 6,267 25.7
Green Party Jason Blanch 807 3.3
Liberal Jim Burrows 5,193 21.3
Independent Kate Graves 149 0.6
Christian Heritage Party Jim Hnatiuk 776 3.2

Voter turnout: 24,359 of 68,172 registered electors (35.7%)

Hochelaga Last updated: 00:20 ET
Party Candidate Votes % Votes
neorhino.ca Gabrielle Anctil 128 0.7
Conservative Stéphanie Cloutier 1,774 10.1
Marxist-Leninist Christine Dandenault 79 0.5
Liberal Robert David 2,510 14.3
Green Party Christine Lebel 571 3.3
Bloc Québécois Daniel Paillé 8,972 51.2
NDP-New Democratic Party Jean-Claude Rocheleau 3,421 19.5
Independent John Turmel 71 0.4

Voter turnout: 17,526 of 78,714 registered electors (22.3%)

Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup Last updated: 00:26 ET
Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Liberal Marcel Catellier 3,768 13.2
Bloc Québécois Nancy Gagnon 10,737 37.7
Conservative Bernard Généreux 12,162 42.7
NDP-New Democratic Party François Lapointe 1,363 4.8
Green Party Charles A. Marois 472 1.7

Voter turnout: 28,502 of 77,851 registered electors (36.6%)


New Westminster--Coquitlam Last updated: 01:04 ET
Party Candidate Votes % Votes
Conservative Diana Dilworth 8,753 35.8
NDP-New Democratic Party Fin Donnelly 12,129 49.6
Green Party Rebecca Helps 1,046 4.3
Liberal Ken Beck Lee 2,514 10.3

Voter turnout: 24,442 of 81,805 registered electors (29.9%)