submitted in 4 parts, starting 9:27 am, PST, 8 Jan.'10:
Harper prorogues, No election plans? Just watch him, Don Newman, January 7, 2010
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/01/07/f-vp-newman.html#socialcomments-submit
Don Newman's analysis of the current situation is very good. He seems to have left out the euphoric love-in effect for Harper and the Con's coming off the Winter Olympics. This factor should not be overlooked and by that time the Afghan Detainee Transfer Scandal and ensuing cover-up may very well refer to 'bygone days'.
Another factor, which may work against an election is the current downward trend in Harper and the Con's in the Polls. However, it may very well be that the fading into the pages of history of the Afghan Scandal and the Olympics will cause an upturn, and it probably will.
But keep in mind, and this is fundamental to me anyway, Harper and the Con's appear to have a 33 - 35% core of die-hard supporters, Harper and the Con's need only be targeted in their approach to wooing and turning some of the demographic and social-economic 'blocks' and anyone who thinks they do not have such a strategy and are not successful in this will, likely, be in for a surprise. I won't go into the actual blocks and where they stand. But keep in mind that it is quite possible to get a majority with only 38% of the vote.
Also, the 33% core die-hard supporters means that in any election Harper and the Con's are not likely to finish behind any other Party, no matter who starts it. Also, given the seemingly unlimited funds from these supporters and the very limited funds for their 'enemy', an election will not harm the Con Party finances but may very well devastate those of the Liberals, itself a 'winning strategy'.
So Harper has nothing to loose and everything to gain. And, hey, if he can con people into thinking it was the Liberals who brought on the election maybe he will get that majority.
Combine this with a perception that Ignatieff and the Liberals are weak (and if the Liberals don't think this is so, they just have to go out and talk to people) and Harper will, in the New Year, start changing his tune to "Oh, and by the way, did I mention that Canadians do want an election" and perhaps poison the budget to force an election - yah, like he's ever done that before.
Ignatieff and the Liberals seem to be oblivious to this real threat of an early Spring election with Ignatieff going on the University circuit to 'listen and learn'.
Ignatieff ought to be girding his sword, the Liberals 'gathering the Clans'.
It seems to me that Canadians want a clear alternative to Harper, not some esoteric world view. They are looking for someone that can stand toe-to-toe with Harper, not in the hazy future, but now. They are not looking for some future Utopia. They want to know that they won't lose their jobs, they won't lose their homes, they won't go bankrupt and they will leave a heritage for their children and their children's children that we all can take a step back, look at and be proud to say "This is Canada, this our nation, it's your turn now", and not leave a future for which our children's children that will be required shoulder a withering economic burden in a hollowed-out shell of a nation whose social fabric has been torn asunder.
Someone has observed that the political environment is that of a constant campaign. Anyone who is waiting to fight sometime in the future when they are 'ready' has already lost, if Dion taught us anything it's that.
Proroguing Parliament is outrageous and a very dangerous precedent. As pointed out. Now anytime the PM gets his government into trouble they simply has to prorogue. This will have a neutering effect on Parliament and marginalize it to the point of being irrelevant. Without Parliament, who will be in a position to keep Harper and the Con's in check. There is no other Institution that has the right to obtain the information, present it to Canadians and actually do something about it.
As far as Afghanistan Detainee Transfer Scandal, Harper may be able to Prorogue Parliament. But, he can't Prorogue the the International Criminal Courts at the Hague - those 'For whom the Gavel Falls' - must answer.
It is common knowledge that Harper has the greatest contempt for all Canada's Democratic institutions and is systematically dismantling this nation and abandoning its responsibilities leaving the Provinces to fill the void. To see just exactly what he has planned we simply have to look at what he has done.
Harper caused serious and intentional disruption to Parliament and its Committees, obstructing and responding only with insults instead of any serious discussion. He then called an election contrary to, in at least, the spirit of his fixed term legislation, claiming that Parliament is dysfunctional - neat trick, make it dysfunctional and then use that to justify his anti-democratic actions.
Soon Harper will claim Canada is dysfunctional and defer entirely to the Provinces.
The power to do these things has always been there, especially for PM's that have a majority, or even a large majority. So, why is Harper doing this, whereas Mulroney and Chrétien didn't. One need only consider that the previous PM's had the interests of Canada, all Canadians and the future of this nation, at heart (you may no have agreed with them, but I can't recall anyone suggesting that they did not have Canada and our nation at heart).
Whereas, Harper's base is in Alberta. They make up the die-hardest of his supporters, and perhaps the source of the lion's share of the Con's funding. Harper, from the start has done everything to increase Alberta' autonomy and protect its oil industry, and Canada be damned - this is nowhere more apparent than Harper's policies on Global Warming. Natural Resources Department assessment indicates that the projected increase to economic growth from the oil industry is $885 billion between 2000 and 2020, including growth of $634 billion in Alberta. Just imagine how much the benefit would remain in Alberta if there were no Federal taxes. Then there is the transfer payments, which would be hugely increased, that would be done away with. You do the math.
It seems to me that Canadian's must be made aware of the overall damaging effect that Harper and the Con's policies will have in the long run to Canada not only our economy, but to the country as a nation and our social fabric. It is our children and our children's children that will be required shoulder this withering burdened.
The Liberal Party, or other the opposition Parties, will not be able to do this by themself. It is something that will have to result from a general awareness, including the media both traditional and Web "[shining a] light into dark corners" of government and "assist the process of holding governments accountable” (to borrow a phrase from Harper).
This, of course, is harder than it sounds given Harper propaganda machine and the huge amounts of tax payers money, as well as Con Party money, Harper spends on media - central to the smooth running of their propaganda machine, the Harper and Con largess is tied to media that publish pro-Con materials.
I think that the way to do this is by having everyone, to a person, in Canada who feels strongly enough to stand up and be counted (I am sure I don't need a reference) do so, be encouraged to do it and be provided with the necessary information to assist. Everyone who can, including the media, who is at all concerned ought to be doing this - Canada's future and the future of our children and our children's children are at stake.
Canadians don't want an election, but, I suggest to you, they want a Canada, one that is strong, united, prosperous and Democratic.
And, they want a leader that will fight for them, these things, what this great nation stands for, maintain what we have achieved in the past, and perhaps improve on it, if possible, and leave our children with the appreciation of us having lived here and not a bitter resentment that we were ever given a turn at the helm.
Harper Proroguing Parliament. Then I can only say.
God save Canada.
Who else is left to 'Stand On Guard for Thee'.
We must bite the bullet, so to speak, have an election and give Harper and his Con's the boot.
Lloyd MacIlquham cicblog.com/comments.html