- Don't get Con'd on these by-elections - continued

A bad night for the Liberals, Robert Silver, 10 Nov.'09

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/the-big-winner-in-quebec/article1357381/ Tab 6

AvgCanadian wrote: "We couldn't agree with you more regarding the uniqueness of the "by-election".....However.....when you state:
"people are so jaded and cynical about the current Harper and Conservatives"...how do you explain/spin the fact that they are so far ahead in the polls?
Could it be even remotely possible that "people are approving of the job being done in Ottawa?"

To AvgCanadian:

As Winston Churchill said "Polls are for dogs" (I love it when I can use that).

This is a very complex question and something that can hardly be discussed in 2000 characters. One thing is that if one takes a look at the polls going into elections compared to the election results, a significant number of times there is a reversal from high in the polls before the election to losing.

If Harper and the Cons thought they could get a majority they would force and election - this is simply based on past experience. The fact that he doesn't to me indicates that Harper doesn't read too much into these polls either.

Also, perhaps people have resolved themselves to the polarized political landscape which allows Harper and the Con's to form the government - i.e. as things stand now it is not likely to change much with another election and so we should not have another election. People may indicate support for Harper and the Con's when questioned in a poll but what they are really saying is I don't want an election - what's the use. Or, they may become "undecideds" and this can make the poll look like it favours the Con's.

And, something what is very important is the amount of undecideds, which not many of the polling results indicate. The % of hard core Con's compared to the total decideds is going to increase as the % undecideds increases. So, the poll may really just be indicating that there is a large amount of undecideds and hard core Con's are going to vote for Harper and the Con Party no matter what. There are around 33-35% hard core Con's, you do the math.

PS - you said "We", who is the "We"

Lloyd MacIlquham cicblog.com/comments.html