- In Ontario: Conservatives rise 8% and NDP at 1% - Am I reading this Right!

Submitted 2 May’09
Comment on: Ignatieff takes hit for tax remarks
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/627872

In Ontario: Conservatives rise 8% and NDP at 1%. At first blush I’d say there is something wrong with the polling and I would be very hesitant to rely on it. Perhaps it is that one time out 20 – The Star and La Presse might ask Nanos how many polls Nanos Research done lately. To me this is significant and I think that this should have been commented on in the article and an explanation given.

However, if true, it seems the Liberals are not out of the wood in Ontario. It is not likely that the NDP would get 1% of the vote in Ontario if there were and election. It is also hard to see people turning away from the Con’s to the NDP. So, an NDP rise, which would be at least 10% - 15% and inevitable, would represent a significant decrease for the Liberals, even to the extent of putting them far behind the Con’s and comparable to Oct.’08, 34%, from the current poll’s 43%. However, the Green seem to be fairly solid at around 4 – 8% and would likely only give 2 – 3% to the NDP.

Lloyd MacIlquham