- Harper: I Get By With a Lot of Help From My Friends (Core of Die Hard Supporters Epi-centre Alberta)

Submitted: 8:35am, PDT, 5 Aug.'10 CBCNews
Conservative lead dries up, poll suggests, CBC News, August 5, 2010
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/08/04/ekos-poll.html

If this poll is not simply an anomaly, it is very interesting.

It suggests not only is Con support decreasing but more importantly core die-hard support for the Con's may be eroding, even taking into account the margin of error.

One question is, of course, where has this core die-hard support eroded. According to this poll it may be Quebec. However, I am no so sure of this, their support has decreased there but that doesn't mean their core die-hard support has decreased there. Also, there is some suggestion that if Stephen Harper builds a hockey arena in Quebec City to bring in a NHL franchise the Con's may very well pick up 5 or 6 seats - sounds pretty cynical to me.

Alberta is the important region, next being Saskatchewan and parts of BC. There are no numbers on Alberta and so you cannot conclude that it is eroding there. That the Con support is from core die-hards can be inferred by the how many gave a second choice. There are no numbers on this (although I am sure this forms part of the actual results). However, 57.5% overall gave a second choice (add those for each party), implying that 42.5% didn't. Certainly this does not exclude Con die-hards not giving second choice and perhaps there are some other die-hards as well out there supporting other parties.

Another aspect that can affect the numbers is the % of those that answer the poll (no numbers on this, either) . This increasing amongst non Con's could account for the decrease of Con's in the poll, especially when the decrease is small. This can indicate a mobilization against Harper and the Con's, something that may take a poll of two for the Con die-hards to adjust to.

The core die-hard Con support is the important thing since they are the ones keeping Harper and the Con's in power. Up till now, it could be assumed they would vote Con no matter what, unless perhaps Harper changed his Party's name to Liberal. With their support Harper can introduce pretty much anything he wants that furthers his Con agenda and benefits his core support, to the detriment of Canada and Canadians as a whole. He would not lose the die-hards and perhaps even attract a few others hear and there - who knows even get a majority, God forbid.

This applies as long as the opposition remains so polarized, which this poll indicates it is. This, of course, explains Harper polices regarding the Long Form census, mega-billion dollar spending on 65 F35 jets, the G8-20 conference, increases in prisons, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

As long as these polices do not consolidate the opposition then Harper can take the position 'Canada be d[redacted]'.

Lloyd MacILquham cicblog.com/comments.html